Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) concluded his term on September 30 and Claudia Sheinbaum, his successor from the same party (National Regeneration Movement-Morena) and the first female president of Mexico, took office on Tuesday, October 1. In the opinion of analysts consulted by LA PRENSA, the relations between the outgoing Mexican president and the dictator Daniel Ortega were “cold” and, apparently, the Sheinbaum administration also has no interest in strengthening them.
Although the Ortega Murillo regime “congratulated” López Obrador on July 2, 2018 following his victory in the general elections in Mexico – almost three months after the social outbreak in April of that same year in Nicaragua – AMLO avoided to Nicaragua during his presidential tour of Central America in May 2022.
Furthermore, the dictator Daniel Ortega did not attend the inauguration of Sheinbaum this October 1 and he did not attend the inauguration of López Obrador in 2018.
“It is not López Obrador who is isolating himself, but the Government of Nicaragua. The institutional relations between Nicaragua and Mexico are cold, beyond some ideological coincidences,” said political scientist Iran Moreno, president of the Foundation for Progressive Political, Economic and Social Studies.
In the analyst’s opinion, during López Obrador’s six years in office, the relationship with Ortega was minimal, also due to the Mexican president’s willingness to not personally manage relations with other leaders in the region and delegating these actions to him at the time. chancellor, Marcelo Ebrard.
Mexico takes care of its image
In Moreno’s opinion, the “cold” relationship is also due to the fact that Mexico takes care of its relations and the image that emerges from the approaches with other leaders and States in the region.
“I think the relationship with Daniel Ortega is cold because, as with the Venezuelan dictatorship, they do not coincide in terms of democracy. More than benefiting him, it would harm him and that is why he prevents Mexico from being seen with that type of relationship because it can undermine his image, his investiture and his democratic profile,” he considered.
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The Nicaraguan political analyst José Dávila agrees with Moreno by ensuring that the distance that López Obrador put is due to the nature of the Ortega Murillo dictatorship that imprisons, banishes and represses the population, so, in his opinion, “not taking distance of a regime of this level of cruelty is an affront even to a government that considers itself leftist. “You cannot tolerate or defend the indefensible.”
However, in regional spaces such as the Organization of American States (OAS), Mexico did not always condemn the repression of the dictatorship, excusing itself on the principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of the member countries of the organization.
The only time AMLO defended Ortega
After the United States’ announcement not to invite Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela to the Summit of the Americas, López Obrador did not attend and delegated participation to his foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard.
According to AMLO, his decision follows from the United States’ refusal not to invite the three countries with dictatorial regimes.
“It would be the last straw for us to attend a Summit in that context, that is contrary to Mexico’s foreign policy, to what our Constitution establishes, to non-intervention, to the self-determination of the people,” López Obrador said on that occasion. .
On April 7, 2024, two years later, Ortega “returned the favor.” The regime ended relations with Ecuador after the police of this country stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito, to capture the former Ecuadorian vice president, Jorge Glas, who was holed up in the Mexican diplomatic headquarters. López Obrador’s reaction came two days later. In his usual morning press conference, the Mexican president thanked Nicaragua for having broken relations with Ecuador.
“Without us asking, Nicaragua decides to break relations with Ecuador and we thank Nicaragua, because nobility obliges, and we are going to continue,” said López Obrador.
López Obrador “forgot” Ortega’s inauguration
One of the most notable episodes of the “distance” between López Obrador and Ortega occurred on January 10, 2022, when the dictator took office after questioned general elections in November of the previous year preceded by the imprisonment of opposition leaders.
During his morning press conference, López Obrador assured that it would be “reckless” not to send anyone to Nicaragua for Ortega’s inauguration in 2022, although he forgot the date.
“It hasn’t been decided yet. When is the inauguration? Today? I didn’t know. Let’s see if there is time for it to arrive, because we have good relations with everyone, and we don’t want to be reckless,” López Obrador said on that occasion.
But Ortega did not personally attend Sheinbaum’s inauguration and delegated his new chancellor Valdrack Jaentshcke to attend the ceremony, according to the dictatorship’s spokesperson, Rosario Murillo, in her speech on Tuesday.
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“If Ortega does not attend the inauguration of López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum it is a personal decision, because the Mexican State sends the corresponding invitations. If the Nicaraguan government sends a representative, it is a decision of the Nicaraguan State,” Moreno considered.
Relations with Sheinbaum will be the same
The Ortega Murillo dictatorship congratulated Sheinbaum for her inauguration on Tuesday and assured that the new president will be able to count on Nicaragua for “the necessary struggles.”
However, Moreno considers that the regime’s relations with Sheinbaum will be the same as those of López Obrador.
Read also: Gustavo Petro responds to Ortega: “At least I am not dragging down the human rights of the people of my country”
“I don’t think there will be visits to Nicaragua because it doesn’t benefit Mexico that beyond defending national sovereignty, at times when the dictatorship falls it can have an impact in some way. But at the moment, I don’t see any relationship beyond the institutional one,” Moreno said.
The “letter” that AMLO sent to Ortega and the dictatorship’s null response
On February 22, 2023, 13 days after the dictatorship banished 222 political prisoners to the United States, the Mexican president showed a letter he sent to Ortega on December 1 in which he offered asylum to political prisoners, especially due to the state of health of former guerrilla commander Dora María Téllez.
“I consider that it is a humanitarian gesture towards Mrs. Téllez, or any other of the people imprisoned today, in no way would it dishonor the sovereign policy of Nicaragua and would be received positively by the international community,” states the letter sent by López Obrador. and that, according to the president, he received no answers from the dictatorship.
Later, López Obrador also offered “asylum, nationality, whatever they want” to the denationalized and politically exiled, stressing that “nationality cannot be lost by decree.”
Read also: Brazil joins the complaint against Ortega before the UN
According to Dávila, Ortega, by not accepting AMLO’s support or efforts for the release of political prisoners, acted vindictively to not give credit to a left-wing government, but which is not unconditional of its excesses.
“In his delusion of grandeur, Ortega was going to enter into agreements, only with the United States because it is part of his megalomania, and he considered that this would improve his image a little compared to doing so with a left-wing government,” said Dávila.
Nicaragua, a bad example
Moreno considered that the example of Ortega and Murillo is being “exported” to other countries in the region, including Mexico and that for this reason, both the international community and internal actors must pressure the new authorities so that they do not get off track. democratic.
“It is a risk that Mexico tolerates that type of government. Mexico should influence so that this does not happen. Nicaragua is an example of what we should not go through, neither from the left, nor from the right, nor from the center,” said Moreno.